Why Media Weight Still Wins

In advertising, myths die hard. You’ve heard the whisper: “It’s not about budget anymore, it’s about creativity, authenticity, vibes.” Sure. But if vibes paid the bills, every kid with a ring light would own a CMO seat. Here’s the inconvenient truth: ESOV (Excess Share of Voice) still calls the shots. Always has. Whether it’s TV in the ’80s or TikTok in 2025, the math doesn’t flinch. Media weight is gravity. Ignore it, and your brand floats away. That’s why today we’re cracking the code: From ESOV to TikTok — why media weight still wins.

The Old Law: Why ESOV Still Rules

ESOV = the delta between your brand’s share of voice (media weight) and its share of market. It’s advertising’s compound interest. Binet & Field proved it in The Long and the Short of It: sustained ESOV > SOM leads to growth, usually +0.5% market share for each +10% ESOV maintained over a year. Checklist:

Spend above your market share, not below.
Sustain it over time; bursts don’t compound.
Balance long-term brand with short-term sales.
Don’t confuse noise (engagements) with weight (reach).

If you don’t outspend, you don’t outgrow.

Example:

Dove’s “Real Beauty” didn’t just charm Cannes juries. Between 2004–2007, Unilever pumped consistent above-market ESOV into the campaign. Result: sales jumped from $2.5B to $4B. Creativity mattered, sure, but without the oxygen of weight, the message would have gasped.

A slogan without spend is graffiti.

The New Arena: TikTok, Streams, and Scrolls

Now the stage has shifted. TikTok is where brands chase virality like pigeons chasing fries. But here’s the catch: virality ≠ guaranteed reach. Organic moments spark, yes — but the algorithm giveth and taketh. Paid still decides if your idea gets 1M views or 10M. Media weight didn’t die; it just changed costume.

Playbook — How to Win ESOV on TikTok (and beyond):

Benchmark your SOM. Know the market share before bragging about reach.
Calculate ESOV across formats: paid TikTok, YouTube pre-rolls, connected TV, OOH. Don’t silo.
Buy the boring: reach, frequency, GRPs. Keep the lights on.
Then fuel the fun: creators, collabs, challenges. But back them with weight.
Rotate assets but repeat codes (logos, colors, jingles). Mental availability > novelty.
Track outcomes: share growth, not just likes.
Adjust cadence: test bursts, then sustain. ESOV compounds only when consistent.
Keep CFO-friendly: tie spend to market growth, not to “engagement.”

Field note — IPA study 2018 → Brands with sustained +8% ESOV → Averaged +4.5% SOM growth over 3 years. Not a TikTok thing, a math thing.

The algorithm’s cute,
but cash still writes the headlines.

Glossary / Decoding

Excess Share of Voice (ESOV)
- The percentage by which your brand’s share of voice exceeds its share of market. Positive ESOV is linked to long-term market share growth.
Share of Voice (SOV)
- Your brand’s paid media spend as a proportion of category spend. If you control 15% of spend in a $100M category, your SOV is 15%.
Share of Market (SOM)
- Your sales share in the category, usually measured by revenue or volume. SOM is the anchor point to compare against SOV.
Gross Rating Points (GRPs)
- A traditional media measure: reach × frequency. Still useful when translating cross-channel buys (TV, YouTube, TikTok) into comparable weight.
Mental Availability
- Byron Sharp’s term for the likelihood your brand comes to mind in a buying situation. ESOV builds mental availability by ensuring repeated exposure at scale.

Case Studies: Media Weight in Action

Dove Real Beauty (2004–2007)

Unilever didn’t just launch an insight (“real women, real curves”). It put real money behind it. Dove consistently maintained ESOV well above its market share across TV, print, and outdoor. The campaign became a cultural conversation, but more importantly, sales jumped from $2.5B to over $4B within three years. Lesson: without sustained weight, “Real Beauty” would have been just another pretty line.

Amazon Prime Video India (2019–2021)

Streaming wars aren’t won by catalog alone — they’re won by SOV. Prime Video went heavy on OOH and digital in India, deliberately overspending its market share. According to WARC, this strategy delivered +9% subscriber growth in just 18 months, temporarily overtaking Hotstar. Creativity (local stars, tailored content) mattered, but the real lever was the disproportionate media weight.

Duolingo on TikTok (2022–2023)

Duolingo is the poster child of TikTok marketing — the green owl dancing, trolling, and riding trends. But the viral fame didn’t grow by accident. Behind the mascot’s chaos was a deliberate ESOV play. In 2022, Duolingo increased its TikTok ad spend by more than 40% YoY, outpacing its actual market share in the language learning app category.

The result? According to Sensor Tower, Duolingo downloads surged +62% globally in 2022, hitting over 16 million monthly active users by year-end. The owl’s antics kept people entertained, but the consistent paid support ensured those videos reached far beyond organic followers. Duolingo didn’t just win memes — it won market share.

TikTok virality can make you famous for a week.
TikTok ESOV can make you bigger for a year.

Hypothetical FMCG Launch on TikTok (2023)

Picture a global snack brand launching a new flavor. Market share: 12%. For TikTok ads, they bought enough inventory to secure 20% SOV in the category over three months. That’s +8% ESOV. Nielsen tracking later showed +3.5% market share growth in six months. The creative challenge? Memes and collabs. The growth driver? Math.

Creativity opens the door.
ESOV keeps the party going.

FAQ — People Also Ask

What does ESOV mean in marketing?

Excess Share of Voice (ESOV) is the difference between your brand’s share of voice (SOV — percentage of category media spend) and your share of market (SOM). A positive ESOV usually predicts market share growth over time, while negative ESOV often leads to decline.

How do you calculate ESOV on TikTok?

1. Determine your category’s total spend on TikTok ads.
2. Divide your brand’s TikTok spend by that number to get SOV.
3. Subtract your current market share (SOM).
4. Result = ESOV. If positive, you’re overspending relative to size — and that’s where growth lives.

Why does ESOV matter more than virality?

Virality is unpredictable. One post might blow up; the next sinks. ESOV, on the other hand, is measurable and consistent. Binet & Field found that brands with sustained positive ESOV deliver predictable long-term market growth. Virality can light a spark, but ESOV keeps the fire burning.

What’s the difference between ESOV and Share of Search?

Share of Search is the percentage of category searches your brand captures. It’s a useful proxy for demand and mental availability. ESOV is about input — how much paid voice you buy. Share of Search is output — how much people think about you. They complement each other: ESOV often drives Share of Search up.

How much ESOV do I need to grow?

Rule of thumb from IPA: every +10 points of ESOV sustained for 12 months leads to roughly +0.5% market share growth. In hyper-competitive categories like FMCG or streaming, the bar is higher because rivals are also overspending.

Can small brands use ESOV effectively?

Yes — but the trick is category choice. A challenger brand might never outspend Coke globally, but it can achieve positive ESOV in a local market or narrow niche. Focus spend where you can punch above your weight.